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印尼股市 後市看好

  • 2008-05-06
  • 工商時報
  • 【蕭麗君/綜合外電報導】

     分析師表示,印尼股市年初至今15%的跌幅,早就反映通膨與美國經濟衰退等利空,預估未來跌勢有限。而且在能源與商品價格飆漲,與經濟成長帶動,可望讓該股市前景看漲。

     華爾街日報週一報導,全球能源與商品價格過去兩年激增,雖然大幅提振擁有豐富資源的印尼經濟與企業獲利,但也讓該國籠罩在高通膨的陰影中。

     但是分析師認為總體經濟表現應該有助於恢復投資者信心。當地證券公司Mandiri負責人韋督多認為,「這是短期陣痛,但是長期利多」。他預估雅加達證交所綜合指數到年底可至2700點,如果以上週五收盤指數計算,其股市將有15%的漲幅空間。

     印尼4月消費者物價指數年增8.96%,反應油價與糧食成本大增。經濟學家更預估印尼今年通膨增幅將上看兩位數。為抑制通膨壓力,該國央行勢必調高利率作為因應。

     他們解釋在全球商品漲勢不見消退,印尼政府預估今年經濟成長依然可達6%,為全球經濟成長最快國家之一。此外印尼最大煤礦生產公司Bumi Resources與國營礦業大廠Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam因擁有充裕現金、加上煤價大漲與海外需求強勁,並不至於受到利率調升的太大影響。